by Gary M. Kramer, Staff Writer

This year’s Oscar nominees for Best Short Films are a mixed bag. Each category has a strong film, but it’s not necessarily the one that is likely to win. Here is a rundown of what should win, what will win, and the also-rans in the Best Live Action, Animated, and Documentary Short Film categories.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

What Should Win: The Red Suitcase. Tense and terrific, this short film starts out slowly with Ariane (Nawelle Ewad), a teenager, arriving at the airport in Luxembourg. She is obviously anxious and after meeting with two customs agents (Anne Klein and Jerome Burelbach), the reason for her travel becomes clear. (It would spoil the film to reveal it). What can be told is that Ariane shrewdly assesses her options and makes some very careful decisions. Director Cyrus Neshvad does not waste a shot here; his film addresses a very real and difficult topic with precision and keeps viewers on tenterhooks as Ariane tries to maintain control of the situation she faces.

What Will Win: Le Pupille. The short, directed by Alice Rohwacher—she made the excellent feature, Happy as Lazaro—is a sentimental film about a dozen plus girls in a Catholic boarding school during WWII. It’s Christmastime, and they are hoping to get a slice of a 70-egg cake. The film is as treacly as the dessert, with cute singing children, a Holiday play, and lots of mischief and praying and sacrifice. It’s more cloying than sweet, which is why it will win.

The Other Contenders:

Ivalu also addresses a very disturbing subject. Pipaluk (Mila Heilmann Kreutzmann) journeys through the vast Greenlandic landscape in search of her missing sister, Ivalu (Nivi Larsen). This powerful entry boasts magnificent cinematography as the narrative reveals the difficult truth of what happened.

Night Ride from Norway is a pleasing short, and with lesser competition, it could have picked up the award. This tale has Ebba (Sigrid Kandal Husjord) stealing a tram when the driver insists she wait in the cold. As she picks up passengers, Ariel (Ola Hoemsnes Sandum) has an unpleasant encounter with Allan (Axel Barø Aasen) and Benjamin (Jon Vegard Hovdel) and a situation escalates. How things play out is clever and provides this short with its nifty payoff.

An Irish Goodbye is the weakest nominee, a dark but warm comedy about two brothers, Turlough (Seamus O’Hara) and Lorean (James Martin), who bond as they complete a list of 100 things their late mother wanted to do after her death. There are few surprises here, with the only real humor provided by Father O’Shea (Paddy Jenkins) as a priest who says inappropriate things.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

What Should Win: My Year of Dicks Yes, the title is amusing, but this short, about Pam (Brie Tilton) on a quest to lose her virginity, has heart. It also features five different styles of animation, from psychedelic to realistic as the story unfolds over several chapters. It’s the most accomplished short among the nominees but it may be too risqué for voters.

What Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse, a cheerful short about the title characters who become a chosen family during a journey they share together. (Hello, Wizard of Oz). Full of platitudes about love and kindness, this is the kind of “nice” film that voters can feel good about supporting, which is why it is favored to win.

The Other Contenders:

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It Arguably the most enjoyable short among this year’s nominees, this absurdist and amusing film has Neil (writer/director Lachlan Pendragon) struggling at his sales job until he encounters a talking ostrich that changes his worldview. The animation is as clever as the story and the dark humor. This film’s a winner even if the Academy does not honor it.

The Flying Sailor is a striking interpretation of a real-life event in Halifax back in 1917. As two ships, one carrying TNT, collide in a harbor. The explosion—vividly rendered by directors Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis—propels a sailor two kilometers while also stripping him of his clothes. This wordless and well-edited short spends most of its 7-plus minutes floating through time and space, but it is an interesting ride as memory fragments of what possibly went through the sailor’s mind during the experience are shown.

Ice Merchants Featuring stylized visuals of a house on a cliff and some interesting use of color, this wordless Portuguese short has a father and son making and delivering ice until something disrupts their routine. It’s not a short for folks afraid of heights, but it is not very memorable either.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

What Should Win: The Martha Mitchell Effect Using archival new footage and images, directors Anne Alvergue and Debra McClutchy recount the experience of the outspoken Martha Mitchell, wife of Attorney General John Mitchell, who was silenced by Nixon administration during the Watergate scandal. But she was right.

What Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers recounts the efforts of Bomman and Bellie, who have been rescuing elephants in South India. Their noble efforts are chronicled in this feel-good documentary portrait, and the elephants are adorable.

The Other Contenders:

Stranger at the Gate If there is going to be a surprise upset in this category, it will be Joshua Seftel’s short sneaking in to claim victory. The set up here has a man, Richard “Mac” McKinney, plotting to attack a mosque in Muncie Indiana—only to have a change of heart and befriend the very people he tried to kill. It’s a powerful story, slickly told, which doesn’t blunt its effectiveness.

Haulout is a remarkable short about Maxim Chakilev who observes the walrus migration in Siberian Arctic. There are amazing shots of tens of thousands of walruses in this impressive film, but there is also a critical point about climate change which is altering the walruses’ way of life.

How Do You Measure a Year? Another personal film from Jay Rosenblatt, who was also an Oscar nominee last year for his film, When We Were Bullies. Here Rosenblatt asks his daughter Ella questions about her life every year on her birthday from ages 2-18. In each segment, she sings, talks about who and what she loves, and explains what makes her happy in life. It’s a poignant snapshot of her growth, but it also feels a bit precious.